Market overview
The JSE All Share closed the week at 128 455.70 increasing by 4.42%. The biggest contributing sector was the basic materials sector, adding 10.67%. Looking globally, developed markets increased by 0.05% (USD) during the week, while emerging markets increased by 2.82% (USD) during the same period
Local events
* South Africa’s economic outlook has strengthened, with GDP expected to expand by 1.6% in 2026. Economic growth is projected to average 1.8% from 2026 to 2028, with the continued recovery supported by improved investor confidence, stable electricity supply, lower interest rates and low inflation.
* South Africa’s trade surplus narrowed to ZAR 9.3 billion in January 2026, the smallest in five months, reflecting weaker export performance and rising imports, signalling softer external demand and increased import pressures early in the year.
* South Africa’s Absa PMI rose to 48.7 in January 2026, rebounding from a multi‑year low and signalling a slower pace of manufacturing contraction. The improvement was driven by a recovery in business activity, while new orders and employment remained weak. Export conditions deteriorated further, though business confidence stayed elevated, supporting expectations of a gradual improvement ahead.
Global events
* US producer prices rose 0.5% month‑on‑month in January 2026, exceeding expectations, driven by a sharp increase in services prices while goods prices declined on lower fuel costs. Annual PPI eased to 2.9%, but core producer inflation accelerated to 3.6% year‑on‑year, pointing to persistent underlying cost pressures despite softer headline trends.
* Oil prices surged amid escalating conflict involving Iran, raising fears of disruption through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy supply. Heightened geopolitical risk has driven a sharp rise in crude prices, with markets pricing in potential supply constraints and higher shipping and insurance costs, increasing near‑term volatility across energy and broader risk assets.
Thanks to PPS Investments for the weekly Market Overview.
Financial Indicators by Sharedata.co.za
Words on wealth: Budget brings welcome concessions for consumers
Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana’s Budget Speech to Parliament on Wednesday was brighter than generally expected and a welcome turnaround from last year’s fiasco, when the Minister unilaterally tried to increase VAT without buy-in from the other parties in the Government of National Unity. Read the full budget commentary on MSN.com here>
South African financial markets hit record highs as Rand strengthens
The National budget that was delivered by Finance Minister Godongwana last Wednesday enhanced the current bullish movement in share and bond prices on the JSE, whilst the Rand continue to appreciate. See the full IOL Business Report article here>
Fill up now – fuel price hikes to hit on Wednesday
After some fuel price relief in February, South African motorists are being hit by price hikes in March, with a particularly big increase for diesel. For details of the latest petrol and diesel pricing see the BusinessDay article here>
Economists gauge hit from Mideast war as China seen among losers
For the past year, economists have modelled the impact of US President Donald Trump’s trade wars. Now, it’s a real war they’re assessing. Read this inciteful article on Moneyweb.co.za here>
Oil surges, stocks slide, dollar rallies as conflict grips Middle East
Oil prices surged, the dollar jumped and shares slid on Monday as military conflict in the Middle East looked set to last for weeks, threatening to upend a global economic recovery and perhaps reignite inflation. See the full Reuters article here>
Gold jumps as U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran spark safe-haven demand
Gold prices rose on Monday, as U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei over the weekend stoked fears of a wider conflict and added to global economic uncertainty, triggering a rush to safe havens. Read the full article on CNBC.com here>