Market summary
The JSE All Share closed the week at 116 726.32 decreasing by 1.19%. The biggest contributing sector was the oil and gas sector, adding 6.42% while the technology sector decreased by 4.44% during the same period.
Looking globally, developed markets increased by 0.05% (USD) during the week. Emerging markets increased by 0.26% (USD) during the same period.
Local events
• Absa Manufacturing PMI fell to 45.8 in August, marking a third consecutive month of contraction as weak demand continued to weigh on factory activity.
• South Africa’s trade surplus widened to R20.1 billion in July, supported by stronger exports of machinery, mineral products, agricultural goods and vehicles.
• South Africa’s RMB/BER Business Confidence Index slipped to 38 in Q3 2026, its lowest level since 2024, reflecting weak demand and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.
• Global pension funds and insurers cut US dollar hedging to 41%, the lowest level since 2015, increasing exposure to currency volatility and shifts in capital flows.
Global events
• The US economy added 162,000 jobs in August, the strongest employment growth in five months, signalling continued resilience in the labour market and broader economy.
• The US unemployment rate remained at 4.1% in August, signalling continued resilience in the labour market despite broader economic uncertainty.
• China’s Manufacturing PMI improved to 49.8 in August, indicating a slower pace of contraction as production and new orders recovered.
• Brent crude is on track for a 6% weekly gain as escalating tensions between the US and Iran raise concerns over global oil supplies and higher energy prices.
Thanks to PPS Investments for the weekly Market Summary.
Indicators by Sharedata.co.za
Changes to tax law in South Africa
South Africans have new opportunities to reduce estate tax liabilities following changes to donations and capital gains tax announced in the 2026 Budget. Discover how to utilise the current tax laws in your estate plan in the Daily Investor article here>
Oil price shock raises prospect of a SARB interest rate hike this month
This week, Brent crude oil prices hit their highest levels at around $97 per barrel as flare-ups in the Middle East war sparked increasing fears about global supply. To see the potential impact on South Africa read the full IOL Business article here>
ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD | GDP contraction on the cards as fuel costs bite
Stats SA’s second-quarter growth data on Tuesday will be the highlight of a fairly data-heavy week, offering a summary of how weak demand and rising costs linked to oil market turbulence have affected the domestic economy. See the full BusinessDay article here>
World’s biggest money managers are rebuilding gold positions
Some of the world’s biggest money managers have rebuilt their gold holdings after prices dropped, betting that long-term drivers of the precious metal will endure even as the US Federal Reserve takes a more assertive stance on inflation. Read the full article on Moneyweb here>
Stocks rattled by inflation risk from rising oil, dicey geopolitics
Rising oil prices, conflict in the Middle East and political uncertainty in Europe kept investors on edge on Monday, leaving stocks to drift lower ahead of critical U.S. inflation data later this week. See the full Marketscreener article here>
Bond yields are surging globally but why aren’t equities falling?
Higher bond yields are alarming investors, but strong growth and record earnings may help equity markets absorb the rising borrowing costs. See the full article on Euronews.com here>
The final sprint
We are entering the final sprint to the end of 2026 and with a number of key indices in Rands lagging cash YTD, the question is how will the remainder of the year play out? While investing is a long-term commitment, our chart of the week suggests that the period from 1 September to 31 December has historically been a profitable one for investors. Despite last week being dominated by renewed concerns over escalation in the Middle East and rising bond yields globally, history suggests that risk assets tend to perform well in the last four months of the year. Looking at the chart of the week, the MSCI ACWI, as a proxy for growth assets, has historically generated a return of 3.6% (10 year average) in USD over this four-month period.
Global equities: historical performance for the last 4 months of each calendar year [2016-2025]
While investing is a long-term commitment, our chart of the week suggests that the period from 1 September to 31 December has historically been a profitable one for investors.
Thanks to Ninety One for this commentary.